Date of Award
12-11-2025
Degree Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctorate of Education (Ed.D.)
Department
Educational Leadership
First Advisor
Jewell Winn
Abstract
First-generation college students (FGCS) often encounter academic, financial, and social commitments that elevate their risk of attrition. Although academic preparation and engagement are recognized persistence factors, predictive research at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) remains scarce. This quantitative study utilized binary logistic regression to identify key predictors of first-year retention among FGCS at a public HBCU. The analysis specifically tested the influence of high school GPA, Pell Grant status, and on-campus housing. Findings confirmed that both GPA and on-campus housing were strong, statistically significant predictors of retention, while Pell Grant status was not. These results underscore the vital role of both academic and environmental factors in FGCS persistence, supporting Tinto's Student Integration Model. Institutions can apply these findings to enhance early warning systems by using GPA thresholds and prioritizing campus housing for this vulnerable student population.
Recommended Citation
Barksdale, Trena, "Predicting First-Year Retention Rates of First Generation College Students" (2025). Tennessee State University Alumni Theses and Dissertations. 331.
https://digitalscholarship.tnstate.edu/alumni-etd/331